Crude exports from Middle East producers recovered to 12.8 million b/d in September, the highest level since the US-Israeli war with Iran began in February, according to Kpler data reported by Reuters on 27 September. Saudi Arabia drove the rebound at roughly 5.4 million b/d, up from 2.446 million b/d in August, with Ras Tanura loadings at 3.6 million b/d against 929,000 b/d the prior month — still well short of February's 6.411 million b/d. Nineteen VLCCs carrying two million barrels each cleared the Strait of Hormuz last week, and September transits are tracking near 7.4 million b/d. Regional exports nonetheless remain about six million b/d below the 18.8 million b/d shipped in February, with Red Sea strikes having damaged Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and forced volumes back through the Gulf.
Why it matters
The binding constraint on Gulf supply is logistics, not reservoir deliverability. With the East-West line impaired, barrels intended to bypass Hormuz are routed through it, so every incremental barrel now carries the chokepoint's risk premium and its war-risk insurance cost. Operators and lenders running price decks off a smooth supply recovery are mispricing the shape: this recovery is route-dependent and reversible inside a week. Term buyers should stress-test supply continuity by loading port and corridor rather than by producer, and credit models for regional service and midstream counterparties need explicit route-outage scenarios rather than a single flat-price case.
What to watch
October loading data and the repair timeline for the East-West pipeline; the IEA's next Oil Market Report; and whether Hormuz transits hold above seven million b/d.