US and China Publish $30bn Tariff-Cut Lists, Strategic Goods Excluded

The United States and China published reciprocal product lists on 28 September covering roughly $30 billion of trade on each side, implementing the tariff understanding reached at the Trump–Xi meeting in Washington. China's list runs to 1,619 items of US goods — agricultural commodities, coal, timber, medical equipment and personal care products — while the US list covers 77 categories of Chinese goods including fireworks, tableware, glass, wooden ornaments and sporting goods. More than 90 percent of covered products move to most-favored-nation rates, with reductions taking effect once both sides complete domestic legal procedures. China separately committed to import at least 10 million tonnes of US coal in each of 2027 and 2028. Chips, electric vehicles and batteries are excluded, the Section 301 investigation into Chinese industrial capacity continues, and the trade truce was extended roughly two months, to January from 10 November.

Why it matters

This is an integrative move around an unripe distributive core. Neither side conceded on the issues carrying real strategic weight; instead they traded low-salience goods where reciprocity is cheap to verify and cheap to reverse, and built process — a US-China Board of Trade, an agricultural working group, an AI dialogue — that keeps channels open while the substantive bargaining stalls. The extended truce deadline is the commitment device holding the package together. The lesson: when the core issue is not ripe, trade the periphery to manufacture reciprocity and preserve the deadline as leverage rather than spending it. For companies, the exclusions and the live Section 301 file mean this is a truce, not a settlement, and sourcing decisions should be priced accordingly.

What to watch

Completion of domestic legal procedures on both sides, the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November and the G20 in December, and the January truce expiry.

Sources

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